Will U.S. core CPI inflation be at least 2.6% year over year in July 2026?

Will U.S. core CPI inflation be at least 2.6% year over year in July 2026?

Event Details

BLS releases the report August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET; consensus is about 2.5% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast is near 2.52%.

Information source

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Outcomes

  • Yes 44%
  • No 56%

Resolution Rules

Use BLS's first published July 2026 12-month change for all items less food and energy. A reported 2.6% or higher is Yes; 2.5% or lower is No; later revisions do not count.

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