Will the U.S. Q2 2026 GDP second estimate remain at or above 1.5%?
Event Details
BEA's advance estimate put annualized real GDP growth at 1.5%; the second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 46%
Resolution Rules
Use the first BEA Q2 2026 GDP second-estimate release, seasonally adjusted annual rate. At least 1.5% is Yes; below 1.5% is No. Later third estimates or annual revisions do not reopen settlement.
Market discussion
- 风险提示: 如果临近截止前还没有明确材料，市场可能会主动降温；如果出现确认文件，方向会更清楚。
- 临近截止观察: 这个题适合分两层看：事实是否发生，以及结算规则是否允许按这个事实判定。
- 规则笔记: 现在 51% 的位置说明市场有方向，但还没有到完全没有悬念的程度。