Will UK CPI inflation be at least 2.7% year over year in July 2026?

Will UK CPI inflation be at least 2.7% year over year in July 2026?

Event Details

ONS releases the figure August 19; June CPI was 2.6%, while the July 2025 index rose only 0.1% month over month.

Information source

Office for National Statistics

Outcomes

  • Yes 61%
  • No 39%

Resolution Rules

Use the one-decimal CPI 12-month rate in ONS's first July 2026 consumer-price release. 2.7% or higher is Yes; 2.6% or lower is No.

Market discussion

  • 规则笔记: 这个题值得看,因为结算条件比较具体,SEO 页面也应该保留完整规则。
  • 事件研究: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息,很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
  • 风险提示: 我认为这个题的波动点在信息披露时间,不一定在事件本身。

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