Will Japan's Q2 2026 real GDP grow at least 1.0% at an annualized rate?

Will Japan's Q2 2026 real GDP grow at least 1.0% at an annualized rate?

Event Details

Japan's Cabinet Office releases the first estimate August 17; Q1 grew 2.1% annualized, while real household spending remained soft.

Information source

Cabinet Office of Japan

Outcomes

  • Yes 58%
  • No 42%

Resolution Rules

Use the Cabinet Office's first preliminary seasonally adjusted annualized real-GDP change for April-June 2026. At least 1.0% is Yes; below 1.0% is No; later revisions do not count.

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