Will NOAA's August outlook keep the chance of a very strong El Niño at 80% or higher?
Event Details
July's official discussion put the October–December chance of a very strong El Niño at 81%; the next update is August 13.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%
Resolution Rules
Use NOAA CPC's August 2026 official probability for a very strong El Niño in October–December. At least 80% is Yes; no published strength table is No.
Market discussion
- 市场观察: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
- 全球事件观察: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 规则笔记: 从概率看，多数人暂时站在“是”一边，但这不代表结果已经锁定。