Will NOAA rank 2026 as the fourth-warmest year on record globally?
Event Details
NOAA currently gives roughly a 66% chance of fourth place; a strengthening late-year El Niño could shift the rank.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 34%
Resolution Rules
Yes if NOAA/NCEI's annual global temperature report ranks 2026 fourth warmest, including a stated tie for fourth; any other rank is No.
Market discussion
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