Will at least one woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry?
Event Details
The chemistry prize is announced October 7; 8 of 200 chemistry laureates through 2025 were women.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 78%
Resolution Rules
Use the Nobel Prize website's first October 7 laureate announcement: Yes if at least one listed chemistry laureate is publicly identified as a woman; otherwise No.
Market discussion
- 全球事件观察: 如果临近截止前还没有明确材料，市场可能会主动降温；如果出现确认文件，方向会更清楚。
- 临近截止观察: 这个题的反面也有逻辑：只要关键动作没有完成，“否”的价格就仍然有支撑。
- 事件研究: 如果最后结果接近边界，结算时应该按规则文本处理，而不是按情绪判断。