Will the 2026 Arctic sea-ice minimum fall below 4.4 million square kilometers?
Event Details
One 2026 seasonal forecast projects an annual minimum near 4.49 million km²; early-July extent was fourth lowest for the date.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 58%
Resolution Rules
Use the 2026 annual minimum daily Arctic extent in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index: strictly below 4.40 million km² is Yes; equal or above is No.
Market discussion
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- 反方视角: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
- 概率笔记: 如果出现相反证据，当前 41% 的概率也可能快速回落。