Will U.S. nonfarm payrolls rise by at least 100,000 in July 2026?
Event Details
BLS releases the July jobs report on August 7, with public forecasts clustered near 80,000-100,000.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%
Resolution Rules
Use BLS's first published July 2026 monthly payroll change: 100,000 or more is Yes; below is No. Later revisions do not change settlement.
Market discussion
- 数据视角: 当前 $68K 的成交量已经能说明市场有分歧，不是纯展示型话题。
- 临近截止观察: 如果最后结果接近边界，结算时应该按规则文本处理，而不是按情绪判断。
- 全球事件观察: 发布时间、官方统计口径、阈值和修正公告 是主要变量。只要这些变量没确认，价格就可能来回走。