Will U.S. July 2026 CPI inflation be at least 3.0% year over year?
Event Details
BLS is scheduled to publish July CPI on August 12; headline CPI was 3.5% year over year in June.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%
Resolution Rules
Use the first BLS release of the July 2026 U.S. city average CPI-U 12-month percent change, not seasonally adjusted. At least 3.0% is Yes; below 3.0% is No. Later revisions do not reopen settlement.
Market discussion
- 规则笔记: 成交量到 $93K 后，说明这个题已经有人关注；下一步要看是否有新的官方来源。
- 市场观察: 如果只看当前价格，市场偏向“是”；但临近截止，任何官方更新都会影响价格，短线波动可能还会比较大。
- 数据视角: 我更关心反方逻辑。如果没有新材料，当前概率可能维持；一旦出现确认信息，价格会很快重新定价。