Will Iran's current regime fall before 2027?
Event Details
Core Islamic Republic institutions must lose de facto sovereign control over most of the population; reform or succession does not count.
- Status: open
- Volume: 24.81M
- Liquidity: 821.79K
- Best bid: 6%
- Best ask: 7%
Outcomes
- Yes 6.5%
- No 93.5%
Resolution Rules
Yes if credible-reporting consensus confirms the Islamic Republic's core system is replaced or loses control over most of Iran's population by December 31, 11:59 p.m. ET; otherwise No.