Will Canada's Liberals win at least two of the three August 31 federal by-elections?
Event Details
The votes are in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia; two vacancies were previously held by Liberals.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 84%
- No 16%
Resolution Rules
Use Elections Canada's certified winners in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano. At least two Liberal winners is Yes.
Market discussion
- 规则笔记: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 市场观察: 同类事件以前经常因为口径不同产生分歧，所以这里要盯住结算规则里的关键词。
- 市场观察: 概率变化要结合时间看。离截止越近，没有确认消息时价格通常会更敏感。