Will the US officially announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by August 31, 2026?
Event Details
A clear official US announcement broadly ending or suspending the blockade is required; the active market prices Yes at 14.5% on about $222,000 in 24-hour volume.
- Status: open
- Volume: 2.42M
- Liquidity: 194.01K
- Best bid: 5%
- Best ask: 6%
Outcomes
- Yes 5.5%
- No 94.5%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if, from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, the US government or an authorized representative officially and unambiguously announces the general end, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade covering Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers. Otherwise resolve No. Limited exemptions, anonymous claims, third-party speculation, and conditional future plans do not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a later reversal does not undo Yes. Primary sources are the President, White House, Defense Department, State Department, CENTCOM, and other official US government channels.