Will Hakainde Hichilema win Zambia's 2026 presidential election on the first ballot?
Event Details
Zambia votes on August 13, with results scheduled by August 17; Hichilema is the UPND incumbent seeking re-election.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if the Electoral Commission's final first-ballot result gives Hichilema more than 50% of valid votes and elects him president; a runoff or another winner resolves No.
Market discussion
- 数据视角: 短期价格如果变化很快，未必是结论变化，也可能只是信息热度变化。
- 规则笔记: 这个题值得看，因为结算条件比较具体，SEO 页面也应该保留完整规则。
- 全球事件观察: 如果出现相反证据，当前 77% 的概率也可能快速回落。