Will United Russia retain a majority of State Duma seats after Russia's 2026 election?
Event Details
Russia will elect all 450 State Duma members on September 18-20; United Russia currently holds 324 seats.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 10%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if the final Central Election Commission seat allocation gives United Russia at least 226 of 450 State Duma seats on its own; otherwise No.
Market discussion
- 概率笔记: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
- 新闻追踪: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 市场观察: 还有观察时间，短期消息需要过滤噪音，所以短期内价格变化不一定代表最终结果，只代表信息流变化。