Will the U.S. federal government avoid a shutdown on October 1, 2026?
Event Details
Congressional leaders have proposed a stopgap extending funding into December, while the fiscal year still ends September 30.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if at 12:00 AM ET on October 1 no funding lapse shuts multiple federal agencies for FY2027; otherwise No. OMB, White House and congressional notices control.
Market discussion
- 概率笔记: 同类事件以前经常因为口径不同产生分歧，所以这里要盯住结算规则里的关键词。
- 新闻追踪: 如果临近截止前还没有明确材料，市场可能会主动降温；如果出现确认文件，方向会更清楚。
- 数据视角: 对这种事件，我会把‘已经宣布’和‘已经执行’分开看。