Will Sweden's Social Democrats be the largest party in the 2026 parliamentary election?
Event Details
Sweden votes September 13; the official May preference survey put the Social Democrats at 33.9%, versus 18.3% for Sweden Democrats and 17.3% for Moderates.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if final national party votes published by the Swedish Election Authority give the Social Democrats a higher share than every other single party; otherwise No. A tie for first is No.
Market discussion
- 风险提示: 如果最后结果接近边界，结算时应该按规则文本处理，而不是按情绪判断。
- 临近截止观察: 短期价格如果变化很快，未必是结论变化，也可能只是信息热度变化。
- 概率笔记: 这个事件不宜只看单一新闻，要交叉验证两三个来源，尤其是官方记录。