Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?
Event Details
Only a U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iranian territory counts; air strikes or naval action alone do not automatically qualify.
- Status: open
- Volume: 59.07M
- Liquidity: 1.12M
- Best bid: 17%
- Best ask: 18%
Outcomes
- Yes 17.5%
- No 82.5%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Credible-source consensus controls.
Market discussion
- 事件研究: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 概率笔记: 同类事件以前经常因为口径不同产生分歧，所以这里要盯住结算规则里的关键词。
- 全球事件观察: 对这种事件，我会把‘已经宣布’和‘已经执行’分开看。