Will a COP31 final decision include the phrase “transitioning away from fossil fuels”?
Event Details
COP31 runs November 9–20 in Antalya, Türkiye, and final texts require consensus among parties.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 57%
- No 43%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if an officially adopted final UNFCCC decision labeled COP31, CMA8, or a joint outcome contains the contiguous English phrase “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” ignoring case and punctuation. Drafts, presidency summaries, and press releases do not count.
Market discussion
- 新闻追踪: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
- 反方视角: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 概率笔记: 这个题适合分两层看：事实是否发生，以及结算规则是否允许按这个事实判定。