Will SpaceX Complete a Falcon 9 Launch for Space Force?
Event Details
Predict whether SpaceX will complete at least one Falcon 9 launch related to the Space Force contract by the end of 2026.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 10%
Resolution Rules
If by December 31, 2026, SpaceX has conducted at least one Falcon 9 launch related to the Space Force contract, the outcome is Yes.
Market discussion
- 临近截止观察: 这个题适合分两层看：事实是否发生，以及结算规则是否允许按这个事实判定。
- 事件研究: 成交量到 $86K 后，说明这个题已经有人关注；下一步要看是否有新的官方来源。
- 事件研究: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。