Will JAXA's MMX Martian Moons spacecraft launch successfully by the end of 2026?

Will JAXA's MMX Martian Moons spacecraft launch successfully by the end of 2026?

Event Details

JAXA still lists MMX for fiscal 2026; the spacecraft has reached Tanegashima and is targeting the late-2026 Mars launch window.

Information source

JAXA

Outcomes

  • Yes 72%
  • No 28%

Resolution Rules

Yes if JAXA confirms MMX lifted off by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. JST and entered its planned Earth-escape or Mars-transfer trajectory; no launch or a confirmed launch failure is No.

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