Will Apple officially announce a foldable iPhone by October 31, 2026?

Will Apple officially announce a foldable iPhone by October 31, 2026?

Event Details

Supply-chain reporting points to Apple's first foldable phone in fall 2026, but Apple has not confirmed it.

Information source

Apple Newsroom

Outcomes

  • Yes 68%
  • No 32%

Resolution Rules

Resolve Yes if Apple.com, Apple Newsroom, or an official Apple event announces an iPhone-branded phone whose primary display folds on a hinge by the deadline. Patents, rumors, prototypes, and third-party accessories do not count.

Market discussion

  • 全球事件观察: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息,很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
  • 概率笔记: 我更关心反方逻辑。如果没有新材料,当前概率可能维持;一旦出现确认信息,价格会很快重新定价。
  • 新闻追踪: 成交量到 $92K 后,说明这个题已经有人关注;下一步要看是否有新的官方来源。

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