Will a woman author win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature?
Event Details
Women remain a minority of literature laureates since 1901, but the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 winners were all women.
Information source
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%
Resolution Rules
Yes if at least one person announced by the Swedish Academy as a 2026 Nobel literature laureate is a woman; No if none are women. A shared prize counts as Yes when any laureate qualifies.
Market discussion
- 市场观察: 我会关注最后 48 小时的公开消息，很多事件是在截止前才突然出现明确信号。
- 全球事件观察: 这个市场目前更像是在等一条硬消息，传闻和评论都不够用于结算。
- 概率笔记: 我认为这个题的波动点在信息披露时间，不一定在事件本身。